Will I Regain the Weight I've Lost?

If I lose weight what is the real chance I will gain it back? -- Bryn Spano, New York City

Since most people lose weight on their own, rather than in a science lab, it's unclear exactly what percentage of people regain the weight they've lost. It's commonly quoted that more than 95 percent of people who lose weight -- no matter how they lose it -- put most or all of the pounds back on. I've never been able to substantiate this statistic beyond the original source which is a tiny study done way back in 1959, so let's consider this very specific number with a healthy dose of skepticism.

That said, more than 65 percent of Americans are currently considered overweight or obese. And the weight-loss industry isn't exactly suffering from a lack of customers. So I think we can safely say that a significant portion of people who lose weight are quite likely to gain it back. Interestingly, even some people who have had some sort of weight loss surgery such as gastric bypass or lap band surgery regain some or all of the weight they've lost within two years -- or never lose any of the excess weight in the first place.

I have not been able to dig up any reliable statistics on exact percentage (not for lack of trying so if you find some, please share), but anecdotally I've had surgeons tell me that given the commitment, cost and effort that goes into having surgery they are always surprised by the number of patients who backslide into weight gain. (However, surgery does seem to be the most reliable form of weight loss and long term weight maintenance.)

Whatever method people use to lose weight, why they regain what they've worked so hard to lose is no great mystery: They return to their old habits. They begin skipping workouts and watching more TV -- with one hand on the remote and the other stuffed deep in a bag of M&Ms -- and the next thing they know, they no longer fit into the new jeans they bought to celebrate their weight loss.

The more complex question is: Why is it so darned hard to stick to the virtuous eating and exercise habits that enable people to lose weight in the first place? I believe it's because most people go to extremes to drop pounds. They drastically limit calories, cut out entire, beloved food groups or go overboard with exercise rather than making realistic lifestyle changes that they can live with over the long haul.

Think about it. You've been subsisting for decades on burgers, sodas, and fries and then suddenly you start eating nothing but vegetables and tofu. Chances are you're going lose weight pretty steadily, but eventually you're going to feel deprived and give into temptation. Similarly, if suddenly you decide to turn your soft body into a chiseled sculpture and you need to accomplish this in under a week, you're quite likely to flame out or injure yourself faster than you can turn the pages of your calendar.

Of course, it's only natural to want one marathon workout or one day of fasting to shed the weight it took 15 years of dedicated slothfulness and overindulgence to pack on. Quick fixes, if not a part of human nature, are certainly ingrained in our culture. Just know that the more slowly you lose weight, the more likely you are to keep the weight off. To increase the chances that you'll keep the weight off, I recommend losing no more than half a pound to one pound per week. You may shrink faster than that in the first few weeks, especially if you've got a lot to lose, but try to not to get discouraged when the march of lost ounces inevitably slows.

Also, even though regaining weight appears to be the norm, it is by no means inevitable. Consider as we have many (many, many) times in this column, the National Weight Control Registry, a collaborative venture between the University of Colorado and the University of Pittsburgh, which keeps tabs on more 3,000 people who have lost at least 30 pounds and have maintained that loss for at least one year. The average registrant has lost about 60 pounds and has maintained this loss for about five years – no small feat for a group of people who, in two-thirds of the cases, were overweight since childhood.

Their secret really isn't a secret. They have no magic formula, no spell to cast upon their metabolism, no short cuts. The only common denominator was that they worked out regularly, burning about 2,800 calories per week through exercise. This is the equivalent of between 60 to 90 minutes of moderately paced walking daily or fewer minutes if your exercise program is higher intensity. The majority also employed portion control rather than a specific diet program.

Almost none of the participants popped pills or used other weight loss aids, including surgery. It is somewhat heartening to note that more than half the participants say they found the longer they kept the weight off, the easier they found it to maintain weight loss. Here are two inspiring blogs right here on AOL of people who have kept it off. One, Karla Carrington did it with surgery and the other Leslie J. Ansley, did it without.

That's as accurate an accounting on your chances of regaining your weight as I can give you. Now I'd like to hear from everyone else about their experience on holding onto weight loss. How many of you out there have had their weight bounce up and down so many times, they may as well attach their scale to a string? Post it here or tweet me: @lizzyfit.

My new book, "The Winner's Brain," which I wrote with Mark Fenske and Jeff Brown, hits the stores this week. It is a step by step program to help maximize brain power and achieve success - including in the area of weight loss.